The point is, anyway that you want to paint it, 2023 was Austin’s worst season in three years but it wasn’t bad in any sense. He batted .281 with an.OPS of .861, posted the most strikeouts in his career, had 97 RBIs, and slugged 37 home runs. So you know, a season that most players would die for was considered regression for Riley.
Now, what merit is there behind predicting that Austin Riley will win MVP? The simple answer is, there isn’t much merit at all. Predictions in sports are essentially just educated guesses, most prediction models that you see on Fangraphs are going to play it safe.
But you won’t see any of that here, I’m going to play it very dumb and tell you. You see that year he had last year, the one that was still very good? Doesn’t matter. We’re going to the moon in 2024.
Riley got off to a slow start in 2023 and before June 21st, he had hit .260 with 11 home runs and 42 RBI in 72 games. After that date, during a series against the Reds, Riley hit .300 with 25 home runs and 62 RBI over 86 games.
Why is that date in June important? It’s the date that Matt Olson officially moved into his forever home (at least for the 2023 season) in the cleanup spot, right behind Riley. And if you don’t think there is a direct correlation between Riley’s success and Major League Baseball’s home run leader hitting behind him, I’m not sure what to tell you.
I’d wager to guess that Riley will hit third and Olson fourth this season, and if that’s the case, there is all the reason to believe that Riley could end up with nearly 50 home runs, 120 RBI, an above .300 average, and an above .900 OPS.
If he reaches that, he’ll at the very least be in the conversation, and in my opinion, there are only a few players around the league who can reach those types of numbers, and two of them reside in the same lineup.
Another reason Riley has a solid chance to win the MVP is his fielding. Like it or not, MVP voters do take stock of that in some cases.
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