Breaking news: NOAA Upholds Predictions for Exceptionally Busy Hurricane Season…
The federal agency revised its May prognosis, which called for the most named storms the agency had ever forecast, downward slightly.
Orlando, Florida —Following the release of NOAA’s midseason forecast on Thursday, expectations for an exceptionally active 2024 hurricane season are virtually unchanged.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration revised its May forecast slightly lower, predicting 17 to 24 named storms instead of the original 17 to 25. Since the start of the forecasts in 1998, the federal agency had predicted the most number of designated storms.
Eight to thirteen storms and four to seven major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 miles per hour, classified as category 3, 4, or 5 strength, were included in the most recent forecast. The four named storms that have formed this season were included in the totals. Among them was Debby, which made landfall in Florida on Monday and soaked the Southeast this week.
There are 14 named storms in an average season, including three major hurricanes and seven hurricanes. The NOAA updates its forecast every August, right before the peak of the season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.
David Zierden, Florida’s state climatologist and director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University, stated, “That is very concerning because all the indicators that go into these seasonal forecasts are lined up for a very active season.” “The biggest concern I have is that if a storm forms this year, it might be stronger.”
Because warm waters can intensify hurricanes, NOAA primarily based its forecast on abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean seas. Additionally, the agency mentioned decreased vertical wind.
NOAA based its forecast most notably on unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, as warm waters can fuel hurricanes. The agency also cited reduced vertical wind shear or atmospheric choppiness that can weaken or break apart storms, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds and an enhanced west African monsoon. A transition to La Niña conditions, which can enhance hurricane activity, also was expected.
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