CSU keeps an active view but marginally reduces its named storm forecast for the 2024 hurricane season…
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast by the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project was updated on Tuesday. While fewer named storms were forecasted, the overall picture for an exceptionally active season remained the same.
From a previous prediction of 25, the forecast now forecasts 23 named storms. The predicted number of hurricanes and major hurricanes stays at 12 and 6, respectively, notwithstanding this modification.
According to the forecast, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are almost at record highs, which creates ideal circumstances for the development of hurricanes. Philip J. Klotzbach and his colleagues at CSU anticipate that the warm waters will create a dynamic and thermodynamic environment that will aid in the genesis and intensification of storms.
or La Niña conditions, which typically reduce vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic, further supporting hurricane activity.
“We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” the report reads.
It is anticipated that there is a 56% chance of a major storm making landfall along the entire U.S. coastline, which is significantly higher than the historical average of 43%. The likelihood is 30% for the U.S. East Coast, which includes the Florida Peninsula, as opposed to the historical average of 21%. The Caribbean confronts a 61 percent possibility, much higher than the historical normal of 47 percent, while the Gulf Coast, extending from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, has a 38 percent chance, up from the historical average of 27 percent.
Throughout the height of the season, CSU will provide updates on anticipated tropical storm activity in biweekly forecasts. The following updates will be released on August 20 and then every other Tuesday until October.
Be the first to comment