Talk about Hurricane Ernesto’s forecast…
Discussion Number 16 Hurricane Ernesto NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida AL052024 1100 AM AST Thursday, August 15, 2024
Ernesto seems to be having trouble organizing himself more because of the dry air. There is a sizable dry slot that wraps around the hurricane’s center, according to recent microwave satellite images. Peak flight-level winds of 87 kt were recorded by an Air Force Reserve surveillance aircraft now examining Ernesto, along with an enlarged surface wind field. This strong wind would normally decrease to a surface wind speed of 75–80 kt, but because of the storm’s vast structure and lack of inner-core organization, it’s possible that the winds aren’t mixing down as effectively as they should. For this advise, the initial intensity of 75 kt is maintained.
Ernesto is traveling north at a speed of roughly 12 kt. The cyclone is expected to shift northeast within a day or so, according to the closely clustered model guidance, as it passes through a subtropical ridge break and approaches a trough off the eastern coast of the United States. Ernesto should slow down and shift to the north-northeast or north as he approaches Bermuda on Friday night and Saturday as the trough lifts by the weekend. Ernesto is predicted to pick up speed toward the northeast by the end of the weekend, getting close to the Atlantic Canada coast. The most current NHC track forecast, which is located close west of the updated consensus aid, HCCA, has not changed much.
1. On Friday evening, Ernesto is predicted to approach Bermuda and remain in the vicinity of the island through Saturday evening. A hurricane warning is in place for Bermuda, and a protracted period of high winds and storm surge is predicted to start late Friday.
Hurrying to do the necessary preparations can help safeguard lives and property.
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