Talk about Hurricane Ernesto’s Forecast
Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Fri Aug 16 2024 Ernesto looks to be experiencing the effects of vertical wind shear this morning. The structure on satellite has become more asymmetric with the coldest cloud tops shifted to the east of the center fixes being made by an ongoing Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission, which also found a 50-mile-wide eye open to the southwest. Despite the degraded satellite appearance, the aircraft still found 700-mb flight-level winds up to 98 kt, with peak SFMR-derived winds of 76 kt in the southeast quadrant of Ernesto. A blend of these data still supports an intensity of 85 kt this advisory, though this could be generous. The hurricane is still quite strong.
Ernesto is still moving north-northeast at an estimated speed of 330/12 kt. The deep-layer trough that has been influencing Ernesto’s motion is starting to leave the tropical cyclone behind, and the track guidance indicates the hurricane will slow its forward motion over the next day or so while continuing to move north-northeastward. After that, another shortwave trough that is currently over the upper Midwest U.S. is forecast to dig southeastward, which should eventually lead to Ernesto accelerating northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical ridge to its southeast.
Vertical wind shear up to 25 kt or more has already been detected by SHIPS guidance, and it is expected to continue for another 12 to 24 hours. As a result, the most recent NHC intensity forecast now indicates a bit higher
diminishing; nevertheless, it should be noted that during the following 36 hours, certain hurricane regional models predict Ernesto to decrease below hurricane status. After that, the tropical cyclone maintains sea surface temperatures of at least 28 C, and the predicted shear diminishes as the initial trough exits the system. Ernesto could thus have one more chance to pick up steam before it approaches the Gulf Stream’s north wall by early next week. However, it will probably traverse over somewhat colder seas soon after, signaling the start of the extratropical shift.
following 72 hours, and according to the most recent NHC projection, the system will turn extratropical at 96 hours.
Important Takeaways:
1. From this afternoon through Saturday night, Ernesto is predicted to deliver heavy gusts and storm surges to Bermuda. There is a hurricane warning in force for the island, so it is important to move quickly to finish the necessary measures to save lives and property.
2. Ernesto’s heavy rainfall is predicted to affect Bermuda through this weekend, perhaps causing significant flash flooding that could be fatal, particularly in the island’s low-lying sections.
3. Although Ernesto is predicted to stay far offshore the U.S. East Coast, the region is expected to be affected by the hurricane’s seas into the weekend. Beachgoers need to be mindful of a
substantial risk of potentially fatal surf and rip currents; heed lifeguards’ advice to avoid the sea. Over the next three days, there’s also a chance of surf and rip currents in Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos.
POSITIONS FORECAST AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 12H 17/0000Z 29.5N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 65.5W, 31.0N, 80 KT, 90 MPH, 24 hours, 17/1200Z 18/0000Z 32.5N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 64.5W, 70 KT, 80 MPH, 48 hours, 18/1200Z 63.9W, 70 KT, 80 MPH, 60H, and 19/0000Z 38.1N 62.5W
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