What to anticipate from the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2024….

What to anticipate from the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2024…

The first significant storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, Beryl, made landfall at the end of June. This year looks to be a record-breaking season for hurricanes in the Atlantic. After Beryl left a trail of destruction over the Caribbean Islands, Debby arrived in early August and touched down in Florida on August 5. As of right now, Hurricane Ernesto is located in the western Atlantic (see Fig. 1), and according to the National Hurricane Center, it will be bringing powerful gusts and a lot of rain to Bermuda during the weekend.

Next week, Met Éireann will be keeping an eye on Ernesto’s progress and any possible impact on our weather. Continue reading to learn more about this and how Hurricane Debby affected our weather last weekend in an indirect manner.

Beryl was the earliest calendar year category 4 hurricane on record (spanning 77 years, with the last 50 years being the most reliable as that’s when satellites became a reliable source of information). All seasonal hurricane predictions have called for an above average Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. The majority of storms typically occur between mid-August and mid-October, with September 10th being the height of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Season 2024–2025 is expected to be above average, but why?

The tropical Atlantic’s sea surface temperatures are significantly higher than normal for this time of year, and by late summer, a La Niña is expected, which usually means more Atlantic hurricane activity because of a drop in vertical wind shear. Low wind shear in a vertical direction helps storms to sustain themselves in the tropics, so they can potentially strengthen more often into hurricanes.

What distinguishes a hurricane from a tropical cyclone, or more specifically, when should we use the term “hurricane”?

Typhoons, tropical cyclones, and hurricanes are classified according to the oceanic basin in which they form. All of them begin as tropical cyclones, however depending on where in the world they develop, once a tropical cyclone reaches maximum sustained winds of 119 km/h (74 mph) or higher, they are classed as hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones. Hurricane is the term used in the North Atlantic, middle North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific.

Does Ireland’s weather get impacted by hurricanes in the Atlantic?

Hurricanes do affect our weather in Ireland, although primarily in an indirect way. They occasionally force tropical marine airmasses that are warmer toward us, which can be favorable if high pressure is present, but when low pressure is present along with those tropical airmasses, it can lead to unstable, warm, humid air, which can produce thunderstorms and perhaps catastrophic flooding.

Hurricane/tropical storm Debby occurred only last week, providing an illustration of an indirect influence. Debby did not directly impact Ireland, but it did cause a brief shift in the pattern at the end of last week. On Friday, August 9, Debby proceeded north through the eastern US and into Canada, causing a break in the jet stream that resulted in a trough in the mid-Atlantic.