Discussion Number 28 for Tropical Storm Ernesto at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida: AL052024 11:00 AM AST on Sunday, August 18, 2024
Ernesto looks more like a regular tropical cyclone this morning as convection continues to burst and wrap after failing to produce much deep center convection over the previous 24 hours.
all the way around the middle. Additionally, there have been indications of a cloud-filled eye feature appearing on discernible satellite photography. The slight improvement in Ernesto’s structure on satellite has not yet been reflected in subjective or objective intensity assessments, therefore this advisory’s initial intensity will stay slightly below hurricane intensity at 60 kt.
Before Ernesto approaches the north wall of the Gulf Stream, it will have roughly 12 to 18 hours to strengthen back into a hurricane while the shear stays low and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are between 27 and 28 C.
With this feature, the shear increases noticeably and the SSTs drastically decline, both of which should start the extratropical transition. After 72 hours, the cyclone will expand up into a trough when it gets absorbed by another extratropical cyclone, but this process should be finished in roughly 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in good accord with the intensity consensus guideline, and it is essentially an update from the prior cycle.
At 020/14 kt, the tropical cyclone is predicted to be starting to accelerate towards the north-northeast. The predicted track has not changed significantly.
Furthermore, Ernesto is likely to accelerate forward speed and veer more northeastward during the next few days because to a significant mid-latitude trough that is approaching the U.S. East Coast and a sizable subtropical ridge to the southeast.
Ernesto’s path indicates that it will approach Newfoundland most closely from the southeast early on Tuesday morning, with the most of the cyclone’s wind field remaining offshore of Canadian Provence. It is anticipated that the cyclone would shift east-northeastward following the post-tropical transition and continue until it is absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. This cycle’s track guidance moved a little more slowly. additionally…
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